The situation has changed dramatically from the previous analysis, although the price on 25 June is pretty much the same as now. After buyers tested the trend line, which sellers broke through back in June 2019, a consolidation began. This consolidation aggressively was broken up by buyers and for several hours they left the yellow price zone:
However, sellers were able to quickly return the price back to the yellow price zone. In addition, the price returned to the consolidation range on 22-25 June, from which was a shot to $13,760. In our opinion, the current fall slightly constrained buyers come back down to earth and it should make us think that there is no growth without corrections, especially after such a long falling trend. At the moment, buyers are trying to continue their growth. The support for them was a mark of $10,400. This mark for the second time gives buyers resistance before the start of a new growth:
On a daily timeframe, we see that the price has clearly slowed down in the yellow crooked zone, which we have been drawing since October 2017. Given that the day candle closed on 26 June, having formed a worthy pin, and at the same time we saw the largest volumes, starting from April 2019.
There is a high probability of the price stop after such a global growth without corrections:
Also, please note that the day candle on 27 June completely closed the growth of the previous two days. This fact gives sellers a signal for a possible exit from the yellow price zone and the continuation of the fall. We think that it will be clear in the course of the week whether the sellers have enough strength to fall or the current fall was a small correction before continuation of growth.
Marginal positions of buyers for the third day are aggressively decreasing:
However, the position of sellers is interesting. Sellers are in no hurry to increase their positions and continue to be in consolidation:
According to the wave analysis, buyers now form a wave (5), which in the price of $13,150 was equal to length of a wave (3):
After a false breakdown of $13,150, sellers sharply lowered the price to another level of Fibonacci – $10,350, but a day candle closed above the next level of $11,000. So far, buyers will keep this level and it slightly decreases the chances of sellers to continue falling.
Therefore, our main scenario is the consolidation in the yellow zone. An alternative scenario is the continuation of the fall to $9,660. We will discuss more global targets at the end of the week at Bitcoin’s weekly analysis.
About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: BitcoinNews.com