After testing the bottom line of the triangle, the sellers unexpectedly stopped their pressure on the price and then after a small consolidation, which more resembled a stop before continuation of the fall, the price began to increase sharply. The first obstacle on the way of buyers was the price of $3,988. Later, buyers coped with this level and the price went up to $4,100 without problems. However, there is one fact that alarms us and makes us think that buyers will not be able to break through the upper trend line of the triangle and the price will continue its movement within the triangle. Pay attention to the volumes at where the attempt of growth is :
These volumes do not differ from the average volumes until the price is in the triangle. Therefore, we do not believe that the situation in the market has changed dramatically. We think that because of the reluctance of sellers to break through the lower trend line of the triangle, such an indefinite situation can continue until 10 April. At the moment, the critical point for sellers is $4,140. However, above this price is a priced zone of $4,200–4,300, from which the price has already been reflected 3 times in the daily timeframe:
Therefore, buyers need to show true character and strength in order to break the trend. Though, despite the fact that sellers have not broke the triangle down, we do not see signals to change the trend.
Marginal positions of buyers begin to close while approaching to the upper trend line:
Sellers did not expect such a development of events. It is noticeable on their marginal positions:
Take into account, that the price has increased by only 3%, but we see a massive closing of marginal positions of sellers.
If we analyze the latest wave of the fall, then we can see that the current growth attempt, which lasted from 5 March, corrected the fall wave by 61.8% (precisely at this level of Fibonacci the battle continues):
Therefore, locally, we expect to see the test of the upper trend line of the triangle, after which the new attempt of sellers to continue their stable trend movement will begin. Globally, we believe that after breaking through the bottom trend line, the triangle will expand and consolidation will continue, only in the larger percentage range:
However, for this scenario, sellers should show their strength and keep the upper trend line of the triangle and the price range of $4,200–4,300. We will be happy to talk about global forecasts at the end of the week at the weekly price analysis.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News