After a week’s movement in the consolidation channel, sellers continued to fall. In the previous analysis, we described in detail why we do not like the growth channel that buyers have formed after a sharp fall. Sellers gave a chance before the closing of a weekly candle but buyers could not use it. At the beginning of a new week the sellers started their attack:
If we analyze volumes they are increased with respect to the consolidation that took place on the market over the past week. However, in comparison to volumes during the growth on 17 December, it becomes clear that now there are critically small volumes. Buyers do not try to change the situation and allow sellers to easily reduce the price without using large resources at the same time.
If we analyze the current fall on a small volume, then we can see that buyers make two attempts to keep the price. Buyers activated after breaking through the price zone of USD 3,480-3,500. On horizontal volumes, it is clearly visible that a good volume has been formed in this price zone:
Now sellers without volumes could break through this price zone and if buyers can not turn it back, we do not see problems for sellers to continue to fall.
If we analyze the marginal positions of buyers, the impression is that the current fall is fully satisfactory for them. Marginal positions of buyers are increasing.
Sellers also increase their marginal positions in this fall:
The only fact that we do not like in the mood of sellers is the prospect of increasing their positions. If we analyze the previous points of the BTC turnaround and the positions of the sellers, then strong falls began after a strong closing of the marginal positions of the sellers:
So we will closely monitor the price range of USD 3,260-3,360. And we will analyze in detail how buyers will be interested in buying this price zone, and whether the strength and mood of sellers will be to continue the fall.
In the wave analysis, nothing has changed and we continue to expect the end of the correction which began after the growth from 17 December. Globally, the last correction wave Y is forming now. Locally, sellers are ending the wave C. We expect the end of the fall from the price of USD 3,230-3,330$ and the continuation of growth with the first possible stop USD 4,000:
If we see that there is a high probability of breaking through this price zone we will consider an alternative scenario. At the moment, we do not see panic either on the volume or the mood of market participants. So we adhere to our main scenario, which we talked about in our several previous analyses.
We wish you a profitable trading and cool mind in making trading decisions. See you in the next analysis.
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Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
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