After our previous analysis, sellers weakened their pressure and allowed buyers to organize a rollback. Buyers were able to test a price zone of USD 3,560-3,580. This is an important price zone inasmuch as sellers tried to break it three times, starting from 14 January:

If we analyze the growth on 29 January, then we can conclude that the buyers are not ready yet to break the bearish trend. The fact is that the local turnaround did not occur on increased volumes, which would show the domination of buyers. In addition, the higher the price increases, the volume decreases. This means that buyers do not have enough resources in this price zone to break the sellers’ trend. Another fact is the length of green candles. It seems that sellers control this growth and edit the height of the candles forming the pins up:

Even if sellers are weak in this price zone, their number is still quite large. Therefore, buyers will not start growing until the majority of sellers change their mood.

At the moment, buyers have a positive mood for the continuation of the growth. Buyers are increasing their margin positions from 28 January:

However, according to the chart, it is clear that the positions are moving in the falling channel and if sellers are now taking the initiative then buyers will sharply close their positions. Which, consequently, will help sellers sharply to dip the price down.

Sellers’ margin positions are also increasing:

But sellers steadily are increasing their margin positions from 22 December. Both buyers and sellers see the perspective. In this case, it entirely depends on critical points and large volumes where everyone will understand the situation.

In our opinion, lowering the price down now is much easier than breaking through the price zone of USD 3,560-3,580 (this is not the only liquid area which buyers will have to deal with).

Therefore, we adhere to our main scenario: the price range test of USD 3,230-3,330.

According to the wave analysis, growth from 29 January adjusted the falling impulse by 50%.

The critical point for sellers is the price of USD 3,450. If buyers can not break through this price zone, then the turnover will start without a price zone test of USD 3,230-3,330.

That is why we expect the continuation of the fall and we hope to see a change in the market forces for the start of growth.


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