Yesterday, the rest of the market participants ended their run and sellers began to be active. The level of $3,820 was broken through but there is some concern regarding how this was achieved.
Pay attention to the volumes, after which the price bounced from the level of $3,820 on 24 February. Yesterday’s volumes were increased relative to the previous consolidation, but they are too small for a certain continuation of the fall:
So far, the price is consolidated at a broken level of $3,820 and it gives a certain advantage to sellers. If you line a price movement channel from 24 February, then now the price is on the middle line of the channel and there is a prospect of continuation for the fall to $3,650–3,700:
In any case, for growth, buyers need to break through the upper trend line of this channel. During the past week, buyers did not succeed. Therefore, as long as the price is below $3,900, we believe that it is more likely to continue to fall.
Marginal buyers positions have ceased to close actively from 28 February and all this time have remained in consolidation:
Sellers, despite the continuation of the fall, are closing their positions, though not very actively:
On a daily timeframe, yesterday’s daytime candle looks confident. The candle has a big body and inspires the idea that sellers will continue the fall after they see that buyers are not able to regain control of $3,820. In this case, we will see some false breakdowns, after which the price will sharply extend its journey to $3,600–3700.
According to the wave analysis, after yesterday’s fall, buyers were able to organize rollback by 38.2%:
If buyers fail to break through the consolidation down, then after breaking $3,760, the ultimate target is $3,700.
So far, we continue to adhere to our weekly scenario and hope to increase volumes. Otherwise, the price may move in a triangle that has been formed since November for almost half a year (until August):
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News