Buyer attempts to change the situation on the market and start the growth on 29 January failed. After two attempts to break through the price zone of USD 3,560-3,580, buyers simply ceased to try to change the situation and gave the rudder to the sellers. This is clearly visible in the volumes:
The last attack of buyers was in order to transfer the initiative which the sellers successfully took into their own hands. In one hour, sellers destroyed all attempts and achievements of buyers which were built over three days:
Now the price has stopped in the range of USD 3,440-3460. Sellers could not break through this price zone for the first time. The last high-volume candle showed the local weakness of the sellers.
Pay attention to the previous candle with a large volume. It looks confident, big and practically without a shadow. The next candle has a slightly larger volume but it shows us that in this price zone there were buyers who are ready to keep the price. This fact confirms the schedule of marginal buyers positions. Pay attention to the aggressive increase in buyer positions, precisely at the attempt to break the price zone of USD 3,440-3,460:
However, if buyers do not try to organize at least a rebound to USD 3,500, sellers are more likely to break consolidation down. The mood of sellers also shows their willingness to increase their margin positions. During the attempt to break the price zone of USD 3,440-3460, sellers also actively began to increase positions. The difference between the positions of buyers and sellers lies in the fact that with the continuation of the fall the near-term prospects for buyers to close positions, and for sellers vice versa:
Now, buyer expectations for growth are much smaller than at the end of January. At the next attempts to fall, buyers will be closing their positions in disappointment. Sellers on the contrary. The positions of sellers confidently closed from 17 December. Then, began strong and sure growth. Now there is a chance to continue the fall and sellers at the earliest opportunity will increase their positions.
Therefore, our main scenario remains unchanged. We continue to expect a price range test of USD 3,230-3,330 , where we will closely monitor whether buyers will have the strength to keep this price zone and start a new wave of growth.
According to the wave analysis, wave Y continues to complete the correction, which began on 24 December. Wave Y consists of 3 waves: a, b, c. A wave c looks like a wedge, which usually indicates the end of the movement. Inside the wedge the 5-wave structure is clearly visible and at the moment, there is not the 5th wave – one more impulse down to complete the correction:
The bottom line of the wedge coincides with the price zone of USD 3,230-3,330 and only confirms our scenario which we talked about in the previous analyses.
If buyers manage to keep USD 3,230-3,330, we expect the first stop growth at the price of USD 3,770. But this is the second step. First, let’s see how buyers will cope with the first and whether they will keep the price zone of USD 3,230-3,330.
Globally, if you look at the chart, then the fall attempt which started yesterday does not look aggressive nor does it seem as a new impulse down. The volumes are consolidating and we hope that soon the price will find strong support, where it will be clear to all that the fall has come to an end and in the near future we are expecting green days:
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