A weekly candle that should close today has not shone a spotlight on the overall situation. The main event of this week is the breakdown of the price range of USD 8200- 8300 and the maintenance of prices below this zone. At 4-hour timeframe it is evident that the buyers made one attempt to test USD 8200-8300, but could not even touch that zone, forming a long pin on increased volume:
It tells us that sellers are trying to keep the price and suck out all the forces from buyers at current prices to continue the fall. Attack of sellers has ended at the price of USD 7530-7770, but sellers do not behave as aggressively as until recently. Pay attention to how sharply volumes fell, starting from 7 June:
The price just stopped in place and is in the newly formed fall channel. Therefore, we continue to expect our scenario to be worked out, namely the breakthrough of USD 7530-7770 and the blue trend line test, which buyers easily broke on 11 May.
Marginal buyers ‘positions this week decreased significantly and came to the zone when buyers’ positions were consolidated within 2 weeks and the price was in the range of USD 5500-5700:
Therefore, buyers who bought Bitcoin at that time, still feel comfortable and have profitable positions. So panic on their side and a sharp closing of positions were unlikely.
Sellers also did not increase their position and continue to be at the lower limit of the range:
So far, there is no confidence on either side of the market.
According to the wave analysis, we see that the fall, which began on 30 May, buyers corrected by 38.2%. The critical point for sellers coincides with a price range of USD 7530-7770. The price of USD 7530 is Fibonacci level. If sellers overcome it then the next target is USD 7110, near which a blue trend line passes.
Globally, in the weekly timeframe, we see that correction of such strong growth is needed since buyers break important critical points without special problems and it is not clear whether there were still interested buyers who are ready to continue to buy or whether this growth has exhausted itself. In any case, besides USD 7110, special attention should be paid to the price zone of USD 6400-6700, which will be a serious indicator of the strength of buyers:
We remind that in the past this price zone could not be broken through for 5 months, but now buyers break it for the first time. Therefore, the global target for a weekly timeframe is a test of USD 6400-6700 and a local test of USD 7110. As long as the price moves within the falling channel, we do not consider the alternative scenario. The critical point for its consideration is the breakdown of the price range of USD 8200-8300.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
Charts Courtesy: TradingView