Throughout the week, Ether price traded in the 10% range. After a sharp growth which gave hope for a continuation of the trend, movement consolidation began and the same sharp fall was observed. If we analyze the marginal positions of buyers and sellers, the impression is that buyers were more confident throughout the consolidation except for today.
Margin positions of buyers weren’t visible and a harsh position closure happened when the price began to fall sharply. In general, it looks like an attempt to build a trend.
Sellers have a completely different situation. With any sharp upward movement of sellers, positions sharply closed. Only today, after yesterday’s attempt by buyers to continue the growth that ended with the test of USD 132, sellers tried to break through the price range of USD 115-120, as detailed in the previous analysis. Sellers created a flawed breakthrough in order to beat buyers from marginal positions. However, we could not observe this breakdown in other exchanges, so we will not take it into account in the analysis.
As far as the consolidation has not been broken yet and formed over the price zone of USD 115-120, there is a high probability that buyers will be able to keep the price and continue to grow from the price range of USD 115-120.
On 3D timeframe, it is clear that buyers are interested in this price zone and the fall is suspended.
However, if the fall of BTC continues, then there is a possible scenario of the continuation of the fall for ETH to USD 100-103 too. In this price zone, there is the basis of the “double bottom” figure which was formed before the growth on 17 December 2018. If buyers can keep this price zone, it will be a good signal for buyers to confidently continue to grow.
Also, in this price zone, sellers will adjust growth from 17 December 17 to 78.6%. To maintain growth after the first impulse on 17 December, this is an allowable correction. If we disassemble the correction in detail, namely the wave Y which consists of waves a, b, c, then at a price of USD 103, the wave c = 0.618 * a:
Therefore, at the moment, there are two scenarios for us which differ only at the end point of the fall. The main target of growth after the correction is USD 250. Temporary stop is USD 160 and USD 200. The former is a critical point for our scenario. We will closely monitor how buyers are approaching this price to understand how high the chances are to continue to grow.
Hence, we are waiting for the completion of correction and active actions by buyers in the form of large volumes and aggressive candles!
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