Last week, buyers started with the breakthrough of the upper trend line of the falling channel which was formed on 6 May 2018. This breakthrough took place on big volumes and the price quickly turned out to be around a critical price range of $150-160.
As we wrote in our previous analyses, this price zone is the key for the coin. Starting from 16 July 2017, after the test of this price zone, Ethereum’s strong growth began. However, now buyers are below this price zone and the current attempt was not successful. If we draw the channel of movement of the price not from May 2018 but from the beginning of the fall, then the buyers managed to break through only the middle line of this channel:
The upper trend line for this global channel is about $200.
However, at the moment, buyers showed their weakness and could not fix above the price zone of $150-160. Therefore, it is quite possible for the test of $115-120. In this price zone, there is a lower trend line, which buyers have been protecting since 17 December.
After testing the price zone of $150-160, sellers checked whether buyers were also ready to keep the middle line of the falling channel, which buyers successfully broke through on 17 February. Therefore, for the global breakthrough of the bearish trend, first of all, buyers need to keep the price range of $115-120. Then, our next target will be $200. And at this price, we will closely monitor the market because at this point, the long-term decision (or a continuation of the falling trend, or a change in the global trend that lasts more than a year) will be made. Meanwhile, the price is in the triangle, which has the prospect of trading until May:
Marginal buyers positions are at local highs. So far, we do not see sharp movements from buyers. Today the positions have decreased but it does not look critically:
Sellers margin positions are at the bottom of the trend line. However, we did not mention the active increase in sellers’ positions during today’s fall:
Globally, this week ended with a big failed high and if buyers cannot keep above $160, and we’ll see a decrease in volumes, then you need to expect a fall to $120 (to the bottom of the trend line of the triangle).
Locally, we expect a test of $150. If it happens on small volumes, it will be a good signal to sell this coin.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.
He is studying and analyzing the crypto market for about 2 years.
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