An advantage in a certain situation not always gives a victory. It is important to take this advantage and not celebrate the victory in advance. After breaking through the black line of the triangle, which took place on increased volume, buyers did not continue aggressive growth and stopped in a new consolidation, after that the situation was already used by sellers. In the previous analysis, we wrote about the price of USD 0.128. It was a critical focal point and when buyers broke through it – the coast was clear to the upper limit of consolidation – USD 0.145. However, within a week, buyers did not handle with this mark. After the last attempt to break USD 0.128 sellers began their aggressive attack:
Sellers were able to break the bottom line of consolidation, in which the price is from 16 May, thereby freeing its way to USD 0.095. At the time of the fall, we did not notice some great opposition from the side of buyers, so at the moment, the maximum that can be expected from buyers is a test of USD 0.118, and after that, the fall can continue.
In the previous analysis, we put forward the idea that there is a high probability during the fall of Bitcoin, that investors will start to buy other coins to reduce the damage. However, if you look at the chart of the XLMBTC pair, then we see that during the fall of Bitcoin, investors began to even more actively sell XLM. Probably, USD for investors is now the best solution. As a result, we have a situation in which, with Bitcoin growth, other coins grow very sluggishly or are at all in place, but when it falls, the market is actively starting to fall. This fact is slightly different from the scenario of global growth.
According to the wave analysis, the wave (c) completed its formation, and it equaled wave (a) in length. Now, the price has stopped at the level of Fibonacci 0.382 and if the fall continues and buyers will keep USD 0.095 then there will be a chance to continue consolidation in the global triangle:
In this case, we expect another wave of growth (e) with a probable target of USD 0.172.
On a weekly timeframe, we see a bigger likelihood of a triangle scenario. However, you need to wait for a test of USD 0.095 and see how the buyers will meet a red locomotive which wants to break everything on its way with a specific target of USD 0.058:
About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
Chart Courtesy: TradingView