- Bitcoin daily high so far at USD 9,635
- Stock-to-flow model updated to predict a possible rally going up to USD 100,000 valuation in 2021 could be underway
- Institutional investors may not be rushing to buy Bitcoin, but the interest is certainly growing
Bitcoin markets are slightly up after a strong weekend, clawing back all the losses from last week and looking yet again like it could threaten for USD 10,000 this week. Price has hit a daily high of USD 9,635 with a higher low of USD 9,394 (CoinDesk).
The weekend must have also given some signs to crypto influencer PlanB, the creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) price prediction model, who has now just updated his estimates to suggest that a major Bitcoin bull run, that could touch USD 100,000 by next year, could already be underway.
He released this news of a major indicator yesterday, showing that a price increase was now present in his S2F model to show a steady uptick in Bitcoin price prediction for the coming months and years.
— PlanB🔴 (@100trillionUSD) May 31, 2020
The S2F model looks at Bitcoin as a commodity, where existing supply (stock) is measured against he new amount of the commodity being produced (flow). For Bitcoin, stock is Bitcoin in circulation and flow is new Bitcoin being mined every day.
That the Bitcoin reward halving event happened last month should have been an event to trigger some aspects of this model then, but when price went sideways and then down, many began to doubt the bullish sentiment, such as that proposed by the S2F model.
Its creator, however, said that the model was not invalidated by the recent weeks of price form, and in fact updated it to predict USD 288,000 by 2024, with a maximum high double that.
Critics of the model have questioned the validity of this prediction of course, as the crypto market goes into hundreds of billions of US dollars in value. One comment reads:
“These logarithmic graphs that assume that Bitcoin rises exponentially in price are nothing but wishful thinking. We got into the 100s of billions of mkt cap. Things get more linear and slow from here on is what common sense tells me.”
A more famous detractor is that of Ethereum co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, who has voiced out his reservations about such models, whose popularity and mention in crypto articles are “post-hoc rationalized bullshit”.
Whether or not these opinions are true, regardless of which models turn out to be true, it may be that we won’t have long to wait.
Not everyone is ready to wait and see, though, and the much-anticipated pouring of institutional interest into crypto markets may never happen on the scale bulls want, but is happening slowly every day, with news like BitcoinNews.com reported on about Grayscale buying up Bitcoin.
And now, asset manager Blockforce Capital’s CEO Eric Ervin has chimed in to say that they, too, are seeing more and more interest in Bitcoin from institutional sources. He told Cointelegraph:
“We are seeing more institutional interest. I think this would be true regardless of the halving or the QE taking place, even more so given the unprecedented fiscal and monetary global stimulus.”
Stack Funds research chief Lennard Neo also said that their own findings suggest that these institutional investors have been looking to protect their assets from further downsides in the current environment, and alternatives have always been sought. Bitcoin certainly seems to fit some of those profile, though there is not the FOMO frenzy that some commentators had been predicting. He explained:
“Similar to Grayscale, Stack has seen an uptick in investors’ interest — almost double that figures of pre-crash in March — in Bitcoin […] I would not say they are ‘gobbling up BTC’ blindly but cautiously seeking traditional structured solutions that they are familiar with before making an investment.”
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