This week cannot be called productive for ETH. The price remained at the critical point which we outlined with the blue oval in our previous analysis a week ago. Buyers are trying to break through the top trend line of the falling channel in which the price moves from May 2018.
If we analyze the volumes during the attempt to break the upper trend line, we see that at the end of December buyers were unable to change the trend at fairly large volumes, after which the price began to smoothly fall. Now the attempt of buyers to break the bearish trend takes place at much lesser volumes and if there is no miracle and buyers will not increase the volumes, the initiative and the desire to continue growth – it is more likely that sellers will be able to seize the initiative:
If we are talking about the mood of buyers, then they are confident in the continuation of growth. This is due to their marginal positions which are growing:
However, we would be very cautious, considering that now the marginal positions of buyers are at a historical high and we still do not see volumes for certain growth.
Marginal positions of sellers are in consolidation. Sellers are not ready at the moment to take a clear and active position because they understand that the price is now at its lows and the market is very thin:
If we analyze the weekly timeframe, then we see that this week the candle will close almost at the same place where it was opened. Buyers have started taking initiative from 8 February, but now the forces between sellers and buyers are equal.
If it turns out that next week sellers will start their attack, then for buyers it is important to keep a price of USD 110-118. If buyers succeed, with high probability they will break through the upper trend line of the channel and continue to grow. However, at the moment we do not like the weekly candle and its volume. At critical points, the volume should increase and the candles should look convincing. The current situation is more like a simple consolidation after which will be a fall to USD 110-118 (if in the market does not garner volumes).
According to the wave analysis, the fall which began on 6 January ended on 6 February, and the current growth corrected this fall by 50%:
If buyers cannot continue to grow, the first stop of the fall of this coin will be in the range of USD 110-118:
After such a fall, further growth is possible.
However, if buyers are fixed above USD 135, then the next target is USD 152 with a possible extension to USD 210.
Now it’s important to see whether buyers can keep the price. Therefore, for decision making, we expect either a test of USD 110-118 or a break-in and fixing of USD 135.
On a weekly timetable of horizontal volumes it is clearly visible how important the price zone of USD 110-130 is for this coin:
Therefore, in order not to get an unpleasant surprise, we will wait for the reaction of market participants to the critical points, which we wrote above, and then formulate our analysis more precisely.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
Image Courtesy: TradingView (charts)