For the fourth day buyers cannot return the lost price level $232.
Pushing the blue triangle down the next global target is at $200.
Buyers do not have enough volumes to make a correction to the mark $244.
Yesterday’s Ethereum trading day ended with the closing of the daily candle at $218.15. Sellers managed to lower Ethereum price by almost 4% on 29 February. After breaking the price mark $232 on 26 February, buyers cannot return to control this mark within 4 days.
Moreover, their attempts to fix above $ 232 are more like a test and the very nature of the growth is like a slight correction before fall continuation. In the previous analysis, we expected buyers to arrange corrective growth to the level $244. Today, however, we are not certain that buyers have the strength to handle such a short-term trend.
A clear triangle formed on the 4-hour timeframe, which adds intrigue to the situation. As the price exit from such a formation can be both up and down:
Though, given the current local trend and the trading volumes in the triangle which do not inspire to Ethereum price reversal, the probability of the fall continuation is slightly higher. The critical point for sellers is mark $232. If sellers break the lower trend line of the triangle, the next price stop on Ethereum market is around $200. Looking at the range which is limited by the trend lines of the triangle, continuation of consolidation is possible until Monday inclusive.
Nevertheless, given the prospects of the fall, buyers are not at all upset. In the chart of margin positions of buyers, we do not notice a sharp closing of positions. The index continues to be at historical highs. It is interesting whether buyers will behave the same when Ethereum price exits down. But sellers are worried. They have closed their marginal positions quite aggressively today:
According to wave analysis in Ethereum market, if buyers are unable to arrange a correction above $232, then the next local target is $212 with a likely fall continuation to $197:
If you look at the weekly timeframe and the look of the weekly candle, the continuation of the fall will look quite natural:
Therefore, we expect Ethereum price exit from the triangle. On Tuesday we will analyze the previous trading week and select the most likely scenario for the next week.
Image Courtesy: TradingView