After a 16-day period of buyers trying to punch and fix the price zone above USD 140-160, price has been in a growth correction since 17 December 2018. In the previous analysis, we described in detail the reasons why we believe that the main scenario is a local turnaround from the price range of USD 140-160.
In addition to the price zone, buyers also tested the upper trend line of the falling channel, which was formed in May 2018.
Whereas buyers did not have the strength to change this trend and fix the price above the upper trend line of this channel, the main scenario for us should be the continuation of the price movement trend within the channel.
However, there are some facts that give a great chance to the beginning of the turn of the global downtrend.
1. Volumes. Since 5 September 2018, the volume of Ether began to increase significantly. If you compare the previous volumes starting in May 2018, it becomes clear that only now the price of ETH has become interesting for big buyers. And now there is the transfer of these coins from the small emotionally unstable buyers who did not withstand such pressure and we see a strong fall to big buyers.
2. Buyers’ aggressiveness. Buyers are not afraid to buy at current prices and there is a big chance that during the continuation of the fall, buyers will keep the price because in addition to the belief in growth, the price is also appropriate for them. If we compare the current growth rate with the increased volumes and growth from September 2018, where the volumes were also raised, we see a clear difference between the intentions of the buyers.
3. Growth trend. According to the wave analysis, in our opinion, the global correction has ended and we can now expect the continuation of growth.
However, it is important to remember that now there is a falling trend and you need to follow closely the nature of the fall. If buyers can not keep the price range of USD 115-120, sellers can continue the drop to USD 90-94. This is a critical price zone below which the chances on growth continuation will decrease sharply. In horizontal volumes, this is the last liquid zone where buyers can change the situation in their favor.
At the moment, the current fall has corrected the growth since 17 December 2018 by 50%. At a price of USD 120, the wave C = the wave A. The maximum correction is possible at a price of USD 92 $, where the wave C = 1,618 * A:
Margin positions of buyers are closing. This is more like a correction:
Nevertheless, at the bigger timeframe, the buyers’ position tested the historic high and rebounded from it:
Sellers are increasing their positions but in general, it’s more like consolidation. We do not see a clear unanimous sellers mood to close the positions or vice versa. The next week will be important to show if buyers can keep the price or the growth since 17 December that all buyers are capable of at the moment, and we are waiting for a further fall to USD 73. This is an alternative scenario that needs to be remembered:
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