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Why you need to stop measuring Bitcoin’s value in USD and 1 BTC = 1 BTC

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The real value of bitcoin

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This article was submitted by Trevor.

Let’s be honest for a moment. Regardless of who we are or what our story with Bitcoin is, deep in our minds, one of our biggest concerns is how much is 1 bitcoin actually worth.

I created BitcoinExactForecast.com to help you understand exactly how much Bitcoin is worth.

Spoiler alert: 1 bitcoin is worth 1 bitcoin.

And if you invested in one bitcoin in 2009, you would still have one bitcoin today.

This is one of the most rehashed arguments regarding bitcoin, but still worth mentioning.

I am still surprised that more than ten years after the financial collapse of 2008, which prompted Nakamoto to start the Bitcoin revolution, most of my friends and family still ask me what my prediction about the price of Bitcoin will be when I explain to them that I am learning about the technology behind Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Exact Forecast shows what is obvious to many of us, that 1 BTC = 1 BTC, and many seem to counter that argument by saying that one US dollar is also equal to one US dollar.    

And that is absolutely correct… unless you add a timeframe to that calculation.

Say you owned a $1 bill in 1980. Adjusted for an annual inflation rate of 3.12%, that dollar would only be worth 28 cents now.

1980 sounds like a long time ago. So let’s just take into account the aggregate official inflation for the last two years (2019 to 2021): about 10%.

That means that if you used your time, energy and sacrifice to save $50,000 in the bank for emergencies or a big investment, suddenly $5,000 vanished from your account in two years.

Inflation is forecasted to be 8% in 2022.

The price of Bitcoin has changed, but the supply hasn’t.

First, let’s start by remembering Bitcoin’s fixed supply.

There is a fixed maximum supply of 21 million bitcoin, meaning that if you own 1 bitcoin now, you will always own (at least) 1 / 21 millionth of all bitcoin in existence or more.

That’s approximately 0.000000048% of the supply. When you consider that there are nearly 8 billion (7,900,000,000) people on the planet, this means that less than 0.2 percent of the population can ever own more than one bitcoin.

Considering the potential that bitcoin has, there is a very high chance its value will continue growing, to the point where more and more people will stop caring about its dollar value.

Bitcoin is deflationary, and with time, it will become more extremely scarce.

Inflation Is Good™

You can do your own research and get your own perspective on inflation. No matter how you see it, experts and citizens alike will always agree that hyperinflation is not a good thing.

The reported 10% is only the tip of the iceberg as it is based on goods and services. When you take into account other sectors, matters get worse:

House prices in the United States are up almost 20% in the last 12 months (according to whitehouse.gov).

Education is up by more than 100% since the year 2000 (according to educationdata.org). If you have young children right now, you can safely expect to pay at least twice as much for tuition when they are ready for an academic degree.

As a citizen of three different countries, all on different continents, I can safely attest that this model is not unique to the United States.

Bitcoin’s volatility, compared to other fiat currencies

Bitcoin might look risky, but once you leverage the risk of the current inflation happening worldwide, bitcoin might be one of the only choices to hedge against inflation for the average person or the unbanked.

If you look at the big picture instead of the day-to-day price of bitcoin, the results are clear.

Regardless of price and risk, 100% of people that bought any amount of bitcoin and held it for three years have had positive returns.

The positive returns apply not only to the US dollar but especially to other currencies such as the Argentine Peso, the Russian Ruble, or even worse, the Turkish Lira, which lost 44% of its value in 2021 alone (as of writing, the number has soared to 70%).

As of 2022, Turkey is the 27th country by exports, right below Brazil and bigger than New Zealand, Austria, or Denmark.

All fiat currencies are losing value, and the problem gets exacerbated when the bigger ships, the de facto currencies such as the US dollar and Euro, and their respective countries where they are used start getting dangerously close to double-digit numbers in terms of inflation.

Strong or not, the US dollar that we all know is fiat money, or in other words, a government-issued currency not backed by any commodity such as gold. It has been so for the last 50 years. Every country now uses fiat currency. Without a choice, we are all part of the Fiat Ship.

The Fiat Ship

The FIat Ship is big, strong, powerful, and used by many. All great qualities.

But unfortunately, it is sinking, and Bitcoin might just be the least risky alternative to fiat for our assets.

But most importantly:

Bitcoin is so much more than just an alternative to fiat.

Bitcoin is our only way out of the current centralized fiat system, where the few benefit at the expense of the many.

Money should be sovereign, it should belong to the people who earn it, without being intentionally devalued. Nakamoto said it best:

“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.”

Money should be in the hands of people, the unbanked, and those whom the banks no longer want to serve because of personal or political differences that they do not agree on or simply decide to censor.

Money is time, time is energy, and for the first time in the history of human civilization, we can privately hold any amount of that energy inside a cryptographic puzzle that we can take with us anywhere we want in a small device, a private key, or even a list of a few words memorized in our brain. Our effort, our keys, our coins.

We can use it to pay others without the need for a third party, and no owner can devalue it at will.

We, the people, are all in this together, and those of us who hold Bitcoin will doubt it when its price relative to fiat goes down, and celebrate it when it goes up.

Between those moments of doubt and joy, it’s imperative that we go back to our principles, and continue to understand more about Bitcoin’s protocol and mission and dive deep into hard literature about economics, bitcoin, and politics, instead of what the usual media wants us to believe.

Do your own research and make your own decisions.

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