- Bitcoin price moves level with no clear direction
- Three major price metrics are converging for only the fourth time in history, with the previous times preceding huge rallies
- Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey contributes USD 5 million to an American UBI program
Bitcoin markets are moving fairly level as the weekend gets underway, with neither bull nor bear at any strong headway. But quietly, three major Bitcoin price metrics are coming together as the stars align to suggest that a strong undercurrent is waiting to push the rally into overdrive.
I track 3 #bitcoin metrics: Metcalfe value, lowest price forward, and 200-day moving average. Apr 29th was only the 4th time in history they converged. The prior 3 were followed by a substantial uptrend in price. pic.twitter.com/Gi1COeLoWm
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) May 21, 2020
All this despite the inability of Bitcoin to breach USD 10,000 this week, says Timothy Peterson of asset manager Cane Island Alternative Advisors. He spoke publicly about his own personal holy trinity of metrics: the 200-day moving average (200 MA), Metcalfe, and lowest price forward. He explains:
“I track 3 #bitcoin metrics: Metcalfe value, lowest price forward, and 200-day moving average. April 29th was the only the 4th time in history they converged. The prior 3 were followed by a substantial uptrend in price.”
IF looking at his three metrics, you can see that the last time these aligned as they are now was in April 2019, a year ago. While there are a number of metrics to track, the 200-MA has long been recognized by analysts in crypto as a good indicator of support and resistance for the long term. Today, it is firmly at USD 8,000.
Metcalfe value for Bitcoin does provide for a more difficult understanding, and is a complex quant calculation that has a number of implications, which Peterson said of: “Bitcoin’s price provides a transparent look at Metcalfe’s law at work.”
Finally, we see lowest price forward metric, otherwise known as the “never look back”, which attempts to put a lowest possible price for Bitcoin on any given day. Peterson already put down this value on the last day of the year, 31 December 2020, as USD 10,400, which was identical to the reading of Metcalfe value.
Others like crypto influencer PlanB insist that price is still in range of the stock-to-flow price model that now demonstrates a post-halving possibility of USD 288,000, even doubling that value by the next halving in 2024.
All this won’t matter to anyone who does not hold Bitcoin, of course, and the fact is, the vast majority of the world has yet to have heard of Bitcoin, let alone hold some. In this respect, proponents of universal basic income (UBI) would be pleased to hear that Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey, is pledging to donate USD 5 million to ex-presidential candidate Andre Yang’s crypto-friendly UBI organization Humanity Forward.
Dorsey spoke of this plan during Yang’s podcast, Yang Speaks, exploring technology’s outlook and saying that it was high time for UBI for Americans. He said:
“…the only way that we can change policy is by experimenting and showing case studies of why this works.”
Yang had told Rolling Stones that Humanity Forward would utilize the donation to distribute USD 250 in cash grants to thousands of Americans facing financial difficulties through unemployment as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic.
Yang had tried to introduce UBI in his failed presidency campaign but his was a more long-term strategy. Even so, this current UBI is more akin to the one-off USD 1,200 cash payments already disbursed to Americans affected by the pandemic lockdown. Many received them directly into bank accounts last month, while others got physical checks arriving in May. Some 4 million will get prepaid debit cards in their mailbox. The issues right now are that many seem unable to confirm the status of their payment on the Internal Revenue Service website or have yet to receive their checks.
Yang’s central UBI platform is almost certain to have some crypto or blockchain aspect, given his past support for and association with the technology. Humanity Forward has already given almost USD 2 million in COVID-19 related aid.
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