The likes of billionaire Tim Draper who is never short of making upbeat predictions regarding cryptocurrencies are not mainstream investors and are their observations are unlikely to have their desired impact on markets.
This is not to say that the next run on crypto markets could be a huge surge towards Bitcoin’s heady highs of 2017. This according to many is reliant not on input from players such as Draper and ex-hedge fund manager and CEO of Galaxy Investment Mike Novogratz, but more on historically-based theory.
Novogratz claims have done rather well from investing in cryptocurrency but the key is how much has he been able to lose. He stated in 2017 that 20% of his net worth was in Bitcoin and Ethereum, claiming that he made USD 250 million from cryptocurrency from 2016-2017.
It is worth considering then, the other 80% of his non-crypto assets. Like Tim Draper and any sensible investor, he diversified his investment portfolios early on, thereby enabling him to take the sort of hits that would be terminal for most other cryptocurrency investors.
Draper, holding an MBA from Harvard Business School, comes from a long line of banking venture capitalists and is far too canny to be totally crypto-asset dependent; another who can ride any storm with a 100% guarantee of survival.
This is obviously not the case for normal retail investors and individual traders, who take a deep breath with every dip in the market, waiting eagerly for the SEC to wake up and realize that cryptocurrencies are here to stay.
Jim Breyer, a billionaire venture capitalist, added that the world’s best computer scientists are heading to the blockchain space and this is where the future lies:
“So many of the very best computer scientists and deep learning PhD students and postdocs are working on blockchain because they have so much fundamental interest in what blockchain can mean. You don’t want to bet against the best and brightest in the world.”
Cryptocurrencies are clearly not a fad, but those warnings about not overloading one’s cryptocurrency portfolio but maintaining a sensible split between crypto and fiat remain true, at least until the market stabilizes. Billionaires are quite happy spending other people’s money. It may be more advisable to listen to Wall St which tends to be far more stoic, based on what horse racing pundits would call “form”.
The form is that over the past nine years, Bitcoin has survived five bubble-crash-build-rally cycles seeing it fall by about 85% on average and then recover to a new all-time high. From USD 19,500, Bitcoin has dropped about 82% in value and the 85% point would be at around USD 2,950.
So, another drop towards this figure shouldn’t surprise, nor should a bull run following that level. Bitcoin could still be first past the post. It’s early days.
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