Bitcoin may be getting close to the end of its latest bear market, according to Grayscale.
The digital asset manager says bitcoin's recent rally could be an important turning point. However, Grayscale is not saying that the bottom is certain. The market could still fall again.

Bitcoin jumped by about $10,000 during the week and reached roughly $79,500 on August 21, its highest price since May. It later pulled back and traded around $77,000 for a short while, before beginning another march towards $80,000 again on Monday morning.

Grayscale described the move as potentially important, saying, “This week may be a turning point for bitcoin.”

The firm's view is based on three main factors: Bitcoin's long-term adoption, where the market is in its current cycle, and the broader economic outlook.

Grayscale says Bitcoin and blockchain technology continue to gain acceptance even though bitcoin's price has fallen from its October 2025 peak.

The firm points to several reasons for this continued growth.

One is rising government debt, particularly in the United States. Grayscale believes growing debt could increase interest in assets with a limited supply, such as bitcoin.

Another is the growing use of blockchain technology in traditional finance. Stablecoins and tokenized assets are bringing blockchain further into the financial system.

Grayscale also believes younger investors are becoming more comfortable with digital assets and are increasingly including them in their investment portfolios. In other words, the firm believes the long-term story behind bitcoin has not changed simply because its price has fallen.

The second factor is Bitcoin's market cycle. Bitcoin has now been in its current bear market for about 10 months. Grayscale says previous major bear markets lasted about 11 to 12 months on average.

Therefore, many believed the next bull market could begin around October or November. As a result, the firm believes that if current prices can sustain these levels, it would indicate that the bear market has ended earlier than expected.

There is another important difference.

Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its cycle peak. In earlier major cycles, bitcoin eventually fell roughly 80% from its peak before reaching a major bottom.

Grayscale pointed to this difference in its analysis, saying, “Historically, bitcoin has bottomed ~80% below its cycle peak price. In the latest bear market bitcoin fell ~50% from its peak, less than all prior cycles to this point.”

The smaller decline could mean that the current bear market is less severe than previous ones. It could also mean the market has not yet experienced its biggest drop. Historical patterns can provide clues, but they cannot predict what happens next.

The third factor is the economy.

Bitcoin tends to react to changes in interest rates and financial conditions. If the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates again, bitcoin could face additional pressure.

If rates remain stable or move lower, however, the environment could become more supportive for assets such as bitcoin that are considered risky.

Grayscale research chief Zach Pandl believes the current combination of factors looks favorable for long-term investors.

“The structural adoption trend is intact, we are deep into the bear market, and the macro outlook looks broadly favorable,” Pandl said. But he also stressed that the future remains uncertain. “Of course, time will tell,” he added.