Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by the end of 2029, according to investment firm Bernstein. The firm believes rising government debt, concerns about weaker currencies and growing institutional demand could push bitcoin much higher over the next few years.

Bernstein's main forecast puts bitcoin at about $125,000 by the end of 2026. It then expects bitcoin to reach a new all-time high of around $150,000 by mid-2027 before climbing to approximately $300,000 in 2029.

The firm also has a more bullish scenario. If institutional investors buy bitcoin more aggressively, the scarce digital money could reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and as much as $500,000 by 2029.

Bernstein has kept its long-term bitcoin forecast of about $1 million by the end of 2033.
The main reason behind the forecast is what Bernstein calls the "debasement trade," CNBC reports.

The idea is simple: when investors worry that governments are taking on too much debt or that currencies will lose purchasing power, they may look for “hard” assets that are scarce and difficult to create.

Bitcoin fits that description because its supply is limited to 21 million coins. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani believes governments could eventually choose policies that weaken currencies rather than take painful steps to reduce their debt.

"Faced with the choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, we believe the policymakers will ultimately favor the latter," Chhugani said in a letter to clients.

US government debt recently soared past the $40 trillion mark. Bernstein argues that higher borrowing costs could make the debt problem more difficult because governments have to spend more money on interest payments.

The firm believes this could encourage more investors to hold scarce assets such as bitcoin and gold.

Bernstein also sees growing institutional interest as an important part of the Bitcoin story.

Spot bitcoin ETFs have made it easier for traditional investors to gain exposure to bitcoin. Companies are also buying bitcoin for their corporate treasuries, giving the digital asset another source of demand.

If this demand keeps growing, Bernstein believes bitcoin could rise faster than it has during previous market cycles.

"In our base case, we expect bitcoin to reach new all-time high of $150K by mid-2027 and $300K by 2029 end," Chhugani wrote. But he also sees a possibility of a much bigger move.

If institutional investors actively chase bitcoin while concerns about currency debasement increase, Chhugani believes bitcoin could reach $500,000 in 2029.

Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, shares this sentiment. In a recent post on X, he suggests that the debasement trade could soon overtake the current AI mania.

The long-term forecast is bullish, but bitcoin still has important hurdles in the short term.
The digital asset recently moved above $80,000 and briefly reached $81,000.

Some reports highlighted $79,000 as an important resistance level. Bitcoin has struggled to stay above that area, suggesting that sellers are still active.

That means investors should separate the long-term forecast from what is happening in the market today. A $300,000 target for 2029 does not mean bitcoin will move straight upward.

Bitcoin has experienced large corrections during previous market cycles, and another major pullback is possible before it reaches Bernstein's targets.

In simple words, Bernstein's forecast ultimately depends on three major ideas: Bitcoin's limited supply, increasing institutional demand and growing concerns about government debt and currency values.

Its base case calls for $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by 2029. The more aggressive case sees $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.

And beyond both scenarios, Bernstein continues to expect bitcoin to reach roughly $1 million by the end of 2033.