You hear that crushing sound? Yeah, that’s the four-year cycle we all thought we had defeated rearing its ugly head.
In a move eerily similar to the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin staged a strong countertrend rally in May, climbing to nearly $83K. However, when it came time to test the 200-day moving average, it lacked the strength to break through.
Just as we saw in 2014, 2018, and 2022, all midterm election years, Bitcoin was once again soundly rejected at this critical level on the chart in 2026.
The narrative says it’s all because Saylor sold 32 Bitcoin and because his company now owns roughly 4% of the total Bitcoin supply, creating a massive overhang for the market.
We disagree. Narratives follow price. And unfortunately, at this juncture, it appears the four-year cycle remains undefeated.
But if you’re not solely focused on immediate price action, there are still plenty of reasons to be excited about Bitcoin’s future.
Other top stories from the week include:
Sweden launches a campaign to award Satoshi a Nobel Prize.
The national security apparatus rallies behind the CLARITY Act.
Brazil turns sugarcane waste into Bitcoin mining power.
Latest News
Adoption
Valour launches a nationwide campaign across Sweden’s major newspapers, Instagram, and TikTok arguing that Satoshi Nakamoto deserves the Nobel Prize in Economics.
Developer Vincenzo Palazzo demonstrates paying a Bitcoin Lightning invoice using Meta glasses. The glasses scan the invoice, while Unify, a Lightning-only wallet built entirely on BOLT12, completes the payment.
Coinbase and Bettter have issued the first Fannie Mae-backed crypto mortgage, allowing a Michigan couple to use Bitcoin and USDC as collateral for a 30-year fixed-rate home loan without selling their BTC.
Regulation
160 former national security, intelligence, and law enforcement officials are urging the Senate to advance the CLARITY Act, arguing it strengthens sanctions compliance and efforts to combat illicit finance.
Japan implements revised Payment Services Act crypto rules, creating an intermediary registry, strengthening AML requirements, and expanding regulator authority over exchanges’ customer asset handling.
Senators Sullivan and Lummis write to the FED and FDIC, urging them to reconsider Basel’s 1,250% Bitcoin risk weighting, arguing it effectively blocks banks from holding BTC despite its liquidity and transparency.
Markets
CME Group launches 24/7 Bitcoin and crypto futures trading, effectively ending the weekend CME gap. More than 7,200 contracts worth roughly $50 million traded during the inaugural weekend.
Morgan Stanley and Galaxy Digital launch a program allowing eligible clients to lend Bitcoin for spot crypto ETP shares, enabling clients to receive ETF shares without selling BTC or triggering taxable disposals.
Bitcoin ETFs snapped their longest-ever outflow streak of 13 consecutive trading days, which saw $4.4 billion leave the sector, with a modest $3 million net inflow on Friday.
Treasury
Jim Cramer says Saylor “murdered” Bitcoin after MSTR announces a sale of 32 Bitcoin.
Strive plans to expand both ASST and SATA ATM programs by $2.1B each and acquires 2,500 BTC for $185.2M at $74,092 per bitcoin to raise reported holdings to 19,000 BTC.
Bitcoin Treasury Capital ($BTCB) announces Sweden’s first BTC-backed preferred stock offering a 10% annual dividend and targets a July 20 Spotlight Stock Market debut as it aims to raise $2.5M to buy more BTC.
Mining
New Op-Ed argues open-source home mining’s biggest challenge is no longer performance, but creating the structure and clarity needed to scale into a truly decentralized movement.
Tether to mine BTC in Brazil using electricity generated from sugarcane waste, starting in July. The operation will run through its backed agribusiness, Adecoagro, and begin with 10 MW and 1,280 mining rigs.
Georgia targets illegal Bitcoin mining in Mestia after electricity use reaches 133M kWh in 2025, with officials estimating up to $9.4M in annual losses.
Politics
The American Reserve Modernization Act directs the Treasury to study budget-neutral ways to expand a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, including converting the government’s non-Bitcoin crypto holdings and using forfeitures, donations, or tariff payments.
Bhutan moves another 738 BTC ($44.88M) as its quiet sovereign Bitcoin drawdown continues, with reports suggesting it has sold about 9,180 BTC over the past 11 months
Hormuz Safe, an Iran-linked maritime platform operating around the Strait of Hormuz now accepts Bitcoin and Lightning payments for shipping services.
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Bam’s 2 Sats
This week, things got heated fast.
The week started with Saylor announcing the sale of just 32 BTC, yet from the market’s reaction, you would have thought he had sold 320,000. Bitcoin slid nearly 20% from there, with relentless red candles offering little chance to catch a breath as the price cascaded from $74K on Monday to briefly touch $59K on Friday.
Normally, this would have been the time of the month when Strategy’s preferred stock began trading above par, allowing the company to issue new shares and accumulate more Bitcoin. Instead, the opposite happened. STRC experienced a sharp depeg, with shares falling from $99 on Monday to as low as $90 on Friday.
Adding insult to injury, Bitcoin ETFs have been shedding massive amounts of Bitcoin, marking the fourth consecutive week with more than $4 billion in net outflows.
Where Does This Leave Us?
Well, in times of fear and uncertainty, as liquidity is drained from Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, speculation about the causes of the crash builds.
Some argue that capital is rotating into the AI trade, especially with a SpaceX IPO seemingly around the corner and potential public offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI not far behind. For a deeper dive, Michael Saylor recently outlined the sheer amount of capital AI companies have raised this year.
And the numbers are massive.
Stay Humble, Hold Onto Your Sats
These are humbling moments. We are watching Bitcoin not only underperform traditional markets but also fall back to its February lows, more than 50% below its all-time high. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain comfortably near their recent highs, buoyed by continued AI euphoria.
To add to the pressure, forecasters are now speculating that Bitcoin could bottom in the $40,000 range. And, as usual, the obituaries are starting to reappear, declaring Bitcoin dead or dismissing it as just another trade.
But as a reminder of what we lived through during the FTX implosion in 2022, many were waiting for Bitcoin to hit $12K or even lower. And yes, they ended up waiting forever.
The 200-Week Reminder
As they say, the best times to buy are often the moments when you feel least like buying.
As economist James E. Thorne noted in a recent piece, those moments have historically clustered around Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average. And here we are once again, hovering around that upward-sloping 200WMA.
If there is one thing we can be certain of, it is that Bitcoin is not dead.
It is easy to get lost in the news narratives, the financialization, the ETF flows, the treasury companies, and the macro rotations. But let this serve as a reminder that Bitcoin remains the only asset you can truly own without counterparty risk.
That alone is worth celebrating, and it deserves a premium in and of itself.
Keep building. Keep stacking.
- Bam
