Bitcoin bears were unable to carry out their threats on a worrisome Monday that saw USD 10,000 support floors breached twice, with North American traders finally stemming the tide with a concerted series of buys.
Although the volume was not nearly enough to confirm any breakthrough, it was significant enough to ensure that price clambered back into the high areas closer to USD 11,000 than to USD 10,500 for more than half of the day. And so, it now appears that the immediate danger has passed and we now navigate into the second half of a volatile summer month.
Once bears had done their best, it was only to register the low of 24 hours at USD 10,076 at around 1:15 pm UTC (9.15 am EST), but from there on, awakening buys were triggered, setting price on an upwards trajectory until a high of USD 11,075 just before China market hours. Asian trading has taken off some of that gloss, with mild profit-taking chopping off gains and European vagueness further tapering off price to its current levels at USD 10,720 just approaching London noon (10:40 UTC, CoinDesk).
Overall, the crypto market carries a healthier sheen than it did yesterday, with Bitcoin’s USD 191 billion market cap carrying the bulk of a USD 287 billion crypto market capitalization at 66.6% dominance (CoinMarketCap).
Altcoins have had a mixed day despite Bitcoin’s upswing. While the majority of those in the Top 30 by market cap have registered slight gains, some like Binance Coin (BNB), DASH, Chainlink, Cardano and EOS are still shedding off cents and dollars. 0x was the biggest winner among the recognized alts, posting 17% gains, although Bitcoin forks BSV and BCH also shared respectable percentages above 5%.
Although the market has embarked on a mild recovery, some analysts are not sure that this will invalidate the previous days’ bearish trends. They still believe Bitcoin could possibly dip below USD 10,000 again, and the sentiment does appear to resonate even with the likes of Mati Greenspan, who today advised caution. Speaking to BloxLive TV, Greenspan suggested to “play it safe and diversify your portfolio” to prevent too much exposure to risk on Bitcoin.
#Bitcoin dipped below 10k in the past few trading days and some analysts are predicting it to fall lower 📉
— Bloxlive.TV (@BloxliveTV) July 16, 2019
Trump’s earlier bashing of Bitcoin has finally relented on its social media hold, but only to be replaced by other politicians taking a turn at criticizing the digital asset and other crypto. Forbes reports just hours ago say that US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has poured more oil over the fire, claiming that Bitcoin and crypto pose a “national security” risk to the USA, and was “not comfortable” with Libra, the private crypto planned by social media giant Facebook. Mnuchin was quoted as saying:
“Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin have been exploited to support billions of dollars of illicit activity like cyber crime, tax evasion, extortion, ransomware, illicit drugs, and human trafficking… [Libra] could be misused by money launderers and terrorist financiers.”
I appreciate your concern about bad actors using cryptocurrencies, but please remember: technology is amoral.
All of it — electricity, cars, the internet — can be used for good or evil. And yet, it is the beating heart of human progress. We must push on.
— Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) July 15, 2019
It is a flawed argument, as pointed out by crypto litigation expert Jake Chervinsky, who reminds that all technology is amoral. New technology, in particular, often face initial resistance and their dark sides of use are often exploited to put them in a bad light, just as the internet, electricity and even automobiles had faced in their time prior to mainstream adoption. Bitcoin, like all tech, “can be used for good or evil”.
From a technical perspective, the immediate change in price action offers some optimism for the medium-term traders, with further confirmation of consolidation patterns forming. The recent bounce from the immediate support zone was further hemmed in by resistance, keeping price in a tight range for the 6-hour time frames. At the same time, Relative Strength Index (RSI) on four-hour time frames are slightly bearish but also are now approaching oversold territory.
For the remainder of today, we try to look for a break from USD 11,000 (so far one unsuccessful attempt), which would likely prompt more buyers to enter, or a breach of support at USD 10,000 — basically, same story as yesterday. Otherwise, if neither of these happen, then a stronger basis for consolidation is achieved.
This is perfect – the price dipped and bounced from the support level (the Red pointer).
Also, note the Green pointer how resistance is not letting it move on the upside.
— Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst) July 16, 2019
If we’re wondering what the mathematics say about sentiment, then the Fear and Greed Index has shifted from Extreme Fear up, but of course still remains in Fear Territory, largely thanks to the past day’s gains and retesting of USD 11,000 resistance. Any decent surge either way today could determine another gear change in mood tomorrow.
In any case, the mood is rather neutral, with optimism from the bulls canceling out the downside from the Monday bears. Medium and long term holders will likely have set stops far below what Bitcoin is ever likely to hit this week, so the stage is set for patient waiting.
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