After a long and boring consolidation on the market, there was an unexpected surprise today. In previous analyzes, we paid a lot of attention to the price zone of $4,200-4,300. Since the market did not have enough volumes and the buyers behaved passively, the chance of breaking the price zone was rather small. However, after breaking the critical zone, why was the price able to fly up so quickly? The answer is on the chart of marginal positions of sellers:
Sellers who were in a position in continuation of the fall during the whole month, during one day were hellishly broken. However, after this situation, sellers again began to gain positions, but much more intensively.
In one day, Bitcoin has risen in price by 20%. The last time such growth was observed was one day in October 2018:
It feels like a provocation to reduce active sellers in the market, or a real signal of the start of growth. We will see on Thursday, when the market recovers from the anomaly. Although, if we analyze the marginal positions of buyers, we see that the prospect of increasing positions is still high:
As you can see, from 2017 there is a blue trend line, from which a strong turnaround always begins. Therefore, if buyers keep the price range of $4,200-4,300 and the attempt of sellers to break through this price zone will be weak in terms of volumes, this will mean that buyers will have a chance in the medium term prospect to test $6,200:
If we draw the trend line from February 2018 on the minimum, we will see that now buyers have practically tested this line. Given the fact that throughout the year 2018, the price movement was based on the principle of several hours of movement and several weeks of consolidation, we think that buyers should not be so rash to continue growth.
In addition to the lower trend line, you can draw the upper trend line from 20 February 2018. We see that buyers have tested it today and formed a new critical zone of $4,850-5,150:
If we analyze the three-hour timeframe, now consolidation is under the blue trend line on the increased (relatively to the previous period) volumes:
Talking about the wave analysis, we believe that a global correction is taking place after the fall in November 2018:
Therefore, we consider that buyers above $5,300 without correction should not raise the price. Otherwise, growth from December 2018 is not a correction of the global fall but a new global wave of growth, which means that the market has moved into a new phase.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News
