Analysts from 10x Research are predicting a potential bitcoin surge beyond the $80,000 mark following a breakout above previous all-time highs, signaling an imminent significant move for the digital asset.
Drawing inspiration from the investment philosophy of George Soros, 10x Research emphasizes the importance of flexibility in response to changing market conditions.
Two Opposing Theories
The research firm’s newsletter highlights Soros’s concept of “two opposing theories,” suggesting that investors should develop hypotheses for both bullish and bearish scenarios and act accordingly based on market confirmation.
Reflecting on past successful bitcoin predictions, 10x Research points out its calls to buy in October 2022 and February 2023. It states:
“It appears that Bitcoin is trying to break higher, and our upside targets of 83,000 and 102,000 could slowly be at play – if we break higher, which we are leaning towards.”
However, the analysts stress the necessity of a sustainable narrative to fuel a new price rally. They state that old narratives like Wall Street buying bitcoin through ETFs and Bitcoin Halving hype have lost their effectiveness.
Bitcoin Surge: The Bullish Outlook
In the absence of a clear marginal buyer and a compelling new narrative, 10x Research raises concerns about the potential negative impact of the current shift in U.S. inflation on Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks.
The firm suggests that prices must either fall significantly to make bitcoin attractive again (between $52,000 and $55,000) or surpass the previous all-time high of $68,330 for a bullish trend to take hold.
Identifying potential bullish narratives, 10x Research cites factors such as a U.S. debt explosion, rising interest rates as an indicator of economic strength, the upcoming U.S. Presidential election, and emerging narratives like Bitcoin Runes. They write:
“We should expect to buy dips instead of necessarily sell rallies. While a dip towards $59,000 would have been the perfect buying opportunity, we assume that the market will take these dovish comments from the Fed and turn on the bullish sentiment again.”
The analysts set $68,330 as a critical level, indicating that a break above this level could signal a shift to a bullish outlook. Technical analysis using Elliott Wave theory and flag formation breakouts suggests potential target prices ranging from $81,000 to $83,000.
Notably, while the bullish scenario isn’t the base case, it remains a possibility.
Possible Negative Pressure Upcoming
In contrast, K33 Research analysts Anders Helseth and Vetle Lunde recently warned that the potential return of over $9 billion worth of Mt. Gox-era bitcoin in the coming weeks could “spook the market” and exert negative pressure on Bitcoin prices.
Recent updates on Reddit from creditors of the failed Mt. Gox exchange indicates progress on their claims, raising expectations of imminent repayments.
As bitcoin hovers near its critical resistance level, the market eagerly awaits the next move, poised for either a breakout towards $80,000 or a potential correction driven by Mt. Gox-related concerns.
