Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), a leading bitcoin mining company, says bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. In a recent interview he explained why, and urges retail investors to take a long-term approach.
Thiel thinks the path to $200,000 is institutional adoption, regulatory changes and people understanding the value of bitcoin. He sees a short term correction bringing bitcoin down to high $80,000s or low $90,000s before bouncing back big.
Thiel told David Lin:
“I think the majority of the people who look at bitcoin price are expecting a correction into the low $90,000s, high $80,000s and then a return to growth ending somewhere approaching $200,000 by the end of next year.”
Thiel has pointed to increasing institutional interest as a big driver of bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin ETFs which were approved in 2024 have already gathered more assets in their first year than gold ETFs did in 20 years.
Related: BlackRock’s IBIT Sets Record as “Greatest Launch in ETF History”
And the idea of a “strategic bitcoin reserve” is getting more attention. Thiel says Russia and Switzerland are looking at bitcoin reserves to diversify away from the US dollar. If the US does the same, that will cause a big price move.
“If a strategic reserve is announced [by the US], that will drive a relatively big push. If other countries start announcing reserves… again there’s a finite supply of Bitcoin,” Thiel said.
There’s only 21 million bitcoin to go around, and Thiel sees that as a big plus. Only 20 million have been mined so far and a big chunk of those are lost keys or dormant wallets.
Thiel also said that if pension funds and sovereign wealth funds allocate 1% or 2% to bitcoin, that will be a big demand driver. His message to retail investors is simple: be long term, and hands off your bitcoin! Invest small amounts regularly and let it grow.
“Put just a little bit away every month in bitcoin and forget about it. Over time, it grows,” he said. Thiel noted that bitcoin has recorded yearly declines only 3 times in the last 14 years, and the average annual gains range from 29% to 50%.
As the largest bitcoin miner, Marathon is all in on bitcoin. The company now holds 44,893 BTC in its coffers, worth about $4.3 billion. It also increased its mining capacity to 53.2 exahashes per second recently, showing an increase of 15%.
MARA is using renewable energy sources like wind and flare gas to reduce costs and environmental impact. The firm is using liquid cooling to improve mining efficiency and reduce energy consumption.
Thiel’s optimism shows how bullish he is on bitcoin in 2025. He thinks the new Trump administration will be more friendly to the scarce digital asset. He mentioned David Sacks joining the new administration as a Bitcoin advocate could help shape pro-Bitcoin policies.
Thiel definitely isn’t alone in his optimism. Michael Saylor recently asked his followers how they plan to go through 2025, and 77.7% of respondents said they plan to buy more bitcoin.
