Renowned analyst “PlanB”, the influential mind behind the Stock-2-Flow (S2F) model, has once again thrown his weight behind bitcoin, making a new case for bitcoin price targets in 2024-2028 cycle.
In latest Plan B bitcoin analysis, the seasoned analyst boldly predicts that bitcoin, already a digital asset with unique scarcity, will surpass the rarity of gold and real estate following the upcoming halving event in April.
In a February 3 X post, PlanB stated that it would be surprising if bitcoin’s current market cap, hovering just below $1 trillion, remains eclipsed by the gold market cap, exceeding $10 trillion, post-halving.
Long-Term Prediction
The analyst contends that the upcoming rarity could propel bitcoin’s potential price to soar beyond $500,000. This calculation involves dividing the gold market value by the total number of bitcoin in circulation, currently standing at 19.6 million, and ultimately capped at 21 million.
PlanB clarifies his $500K forecast, stating, “I am talking about the 2024–2028 cycle.”
Comparing the S2F ratios, PlanB underscores the differentials: While gold’s S2F ratio stands at approximately 60 and real estate’s S2F ratio hovers around 100, bitcoin’s S2F ratio is projected to reach about 110 after the impending halving event.
Notably, S2F is a ratio of an asset’s new supply that is being created over time to its existing supply. For Bitcoin, it implies that as the production of new BTC decreases over time, primarily due to halving events that cut the Bitcoin block reward in half, and the overall supply of Bitcoin continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, the S2F ratio will rise.
Short-Term Prediction
Notably, PlanB foresees bitcoin’s price reaching an impressive $55,000 before the imminent halving event. This bullish projection is rooted in the belief that bitcoin’s scarcity will be heightened, contributing to an upward trajectory in its value.
Responding to a user inquiry about a potential all-time high for bitcoin’s price in the current year, PlanB confidently states: “In my opinion, yes.”
Plan B Bitcoin Predictions And Long-Standing Criticisms
The analyst has faced longstanding criticism for his S2F model. In 2022, big names, including Vitalik Buterin and Anthony Scaramucci, targeted PlanB for his renowned model.
Acknowledging the skepticism surrounding his model, PlanB has compared the S2F power law to the time power law, asserting:
“Yes S2F power law is more optimistic (exponential growth) than time power law (diminishing returns). IMO there is not much to debate, both views are solid and simple, time will tell which path bitcoin goes.”
Interestingly, in a January 31 tweet, PlanB provides an intriguing perspective, hinting at the dynamic nature of Bitcoin’s performance and its potential to defy established models. He states:
“Fun fact: if BTC breaks S2F model on the UPSIDE again in 2024-2028 cycle (like 2012-2016 cycle), then diminishing returns are dead and exponential returns are back.”
Despite criticisms of the S2F model’s ability to accurately predict bitcoin prices, PlanB’s steadfast confidence and meticulous analysis continue to captivate the community, sparking ongoing debates and discussions about the future trajectory of bitcoin’s value.
