Key Takeaways
JPMorgan forecasts bitcoin will deliver 10% annualized compounded returns over the next 10–15 years, outpacing stocks, gold and real estate.
Bitcoin’s estimated annualized volatility of 55% remains a major obstacle to its wider adoption in traditional investment portfolios.
Despite its optimistic return forecast, JPMorgan views bitcoin as a speculative asset and continues to favor a traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio.
Why JPMorgan Expects Bitcoin to Outperform Traditional Assets
JPMorgan Asset Management expects bitcoin to outperform US stocks, gold and real estate over the next 10 to 15 years. However, the bank warns that bitcoin remains highly volatile and is not yet suitable for most traditional investment portfolios.
In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, released in October 2026, JPMorgan included bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts for the first time in the report’s 31-year history.
JPMorgan’s Capital Market Assumptions report included bitcoin for the first time
The bank expects bitcoin to deliver an average annual compounded return of 10%, higher than its forecasts for several major asset classes. The report covers more than 200 asset classes and aims to help investors make long-term investment decisions.
JPMorgan’s forecast puts bitcoin ahead of several traditional investments.
The bank expects US large-cap stocks to return 7.5% annually, while US small-cap stocks are projected to return 7.7%. Gold is expected to deliver 5.5%, and US real estate investment trusts (REITs) are forecast to return 8.2%.
Bitcoin’s projected annual return of 10% is 2.5 percentage points higher than the forecast for large-cap US stocks and 4.5 percentage points above gold. However, these figures are estimates, not guarantees. Bitcoin could perform better or worse than expected over the coming years.
Core USD assets vs base case BTC forecast (Click for larger image) — JPMorgan
JPMorgan also estimates bitcoin’s arithmetic average annual return at 20.9%. This is different from its 10% compounded return forecast because compounded returns account for how gains and losses affect an investment’s value over time.
The difference is particularly important for Bitcoin, where large price swings can significantly affect long-term returns. Despite its positive outlook, JPMorgan says bitcoin’s high volatility remains a major obstacle to its wider use in investment portfolios.
“The volatility and unstable correlation of assets like bitcoin (BTC) remain an obstacle to their widespread inclusion in portfolios,” the report said.
The bank estimates bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%, compared with approximately 18% for US large-cap stocks and 17.2% for gold.
In simple terms, the report says bitcoin’s price tends to fluctuate much more sharply than those traditional assets. Investors may benefit from strong rallies, but they must also be prepared for potentially significant losses.
JPMorgan is also concerned about bitcoin’s changing relationship with other assets. For investors, this makes it difficult to predict how bitcoin will behave alongside stocks and bonds, particularly during periods of market stress.
“BTC currently lacks a clear role as a diversifier in balanced portfolios due to unstable correlations to other asset classes,” the report states, adding, “We see bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.”
This means JPMorgan sees bitcoin as an investment that could benefit from certain economic conditions, rather than a reliable way to reduce risk in a traditional portfolio.
As a result, the bank has not included bitcoin in its main portfolio allocation models, despite publishing a long-term return forecast for the digital asset.
“We review the potential returns from bitcoin (BTC) for strategic investors and conclude that while volatility has declined, unstable correlations to other assets impair any role it might have in a strategic allocation. As a result, we believe it is premature to consider BTC as a diversifier in a balanced portfolio.”
JPMorgan’s outlook does not mean the bank is recommending that investors buy bitcoin.
Instead, it reflects the bank’s assessment of bitcoin’s potential returns over the next decade or longer, while acknowledging the risks that come with those returns.
The distinction is important: an asset can have strong expected returns without being suitable for every investor. JPMorgan still recommends a traditional portfolio made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds for investors, with an annual return of around 7%.
Bitcoin’s higher projected return may appeal to certain investors willing to accept greater risk. However, the bank says those who prioritize stability may find its volatility difficult to manage.
The report is also notable because of JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s long history of criticizing Bitcoin. In 2017, Dimon famously called Bitcoin a “fraud.” He has continued to express doubts about the scarce digital money, later comparing it to a “pet rock.”
