There’s a lot in store for Bitcoin in 2024. Some trends from 2023 have yet to play out, while new events will be introduced in the coming year. From new advertising for Spot ETFs, nation-state adoption and Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin 2024 is poised to become one of the most significant years in the history of the asset.
Bitcoin 2024: The Year of Bitcoin ETF Ads
In late 2023, something amazing happened: mainstream advertising for Bitcoin ETFs began. This came as somewhat a shock to those who have been in the industry for a long time, witnessing the asset’s maturation from a niche techie toy to a globally-recognized, significant form of money and a legitimate store of value.
One such ad came from Bitwise, featuring the actor known for his role as “The Most Interesting Man in the World” from previous ad campaigns for a renowned beer brand. The marketing endeavor spread like wildfire on social media. It stands to reason that 2024 will see many more such ads, coming from every corner of the Bitcoin ETF landscape, as investment firms compete for the attention of potential investors.
ETFs Move Forward
Everyone knows the approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF lies on the horizon. But there have been more indications recently that approval is indeed imminent. Some noteworthy developments include:
- Blackrock has named JP Morgan and Jane Street as authorized participants for its ETF.
- Fidelity’s Spot Bitcoin ETF will have a 0.39% fee, while the Invesco ETF will have a 0% fee for the first 6 months.
- It’s rumored that even though the official deadline is January 10, 2024, approval could be announced as soon as January 2.
Ordinals and Transaction Fees
One thing’s for sure: the saga of Ordinals Inscriptions leading to higher transaction fees will continue. And if this gets accompanied by significant BTC price increases, there could be a compounding effect that leads to historically high fees, as transaction volume tends to increase during bull markets.
Could the in-fighting amongst bitcoiners on this topic finally come to an end in 2024? Will some person or group attempt to initiate a hard fork to prevent Ordinals from existing?
Corporate and Nation-State Adoption
The latest FASB accounting rules have provided an additional incentive for corporations to follow the lead of MicroStrategy (MSTR) and hold bitcoin on their balance sheets. After seeing the astronomical success of MSTR, how many companies will follow suit?
But it’s not only corporations that could be getting into Bitcoin in 2024 in a big way. There’s also speculation that this year could see some of the first adoptions of Bitcoin by nation-states since El Salvador.
If this is true, and countries like Saudi Arabia or Qatar were to begin accumulating large amounts of bitcoin, what might happen to the price and hashrate? The impact could be so large as to be incomprehensible right now. Only time will tell.
Fed Rate Cuts?
In December 2023, stocks went to the moon after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will no longer be raising rates. Many investors interpreted this to mean that the Fed could begin cutting rates as soon as their next meeting in March 2024.
Historically, lower rates have meant higher liquidity in financial markets, which has benefited bitcoin. If rate cuts do materialize, this could add further fuel to the fire for the bitcoin’s price.
2024 Halving & Price Predictions
Last but not least, Bitcoin will undergo its fourth halving event sometime in April of 2024. This has always been a bullish event in the past. And contrary to what some market commentators believe, the halving can never be fully priced in before the fact.
The reason is simple: Bitcoin is the only asset with a fixed supply and issuance rate. The oncoming supply gets reduced by 50% after the halving. Miners then have less coins to sell, reducing a significant portion of selling pressure. So, we can never know exactly how the halving will impact prices until sometime after it.
Price predictions for 2024 from experts range from $50,000 in early 2024 to $1,000,000 and beyond. If history is any indicator however, the cycle top will not be reached until 18 months post-halving, which in this case will be October of 2025.
This last cycle saw bitcoin rise from about $9,000 at the time of the halving in May of 2020 to a high of $69,000 in November 2021, 18 months later. This represents a rise of 7.6x. If this trend were to repeat, bitcoin could reach a price of $300,000 by October 2025, assuming a price of $40,000 at the time of the next halving.
Bitcoin 2024: Big Moves Ahead
While the year 2024 has just begun, significant developments already appear on the horizon. It’s incredible to imagine what this year could bring. Bitcoin is poised to do well by any conceivable metric, both fundamentally and technically.
